Characteristics of supply chain forecasting in indian supply chains

The first characteristic is,

Forecasts have to include both expected value and forecast errors.

Let us take examples of paint companies X and Y and their forecast for the Vizag city. The company X forecasted 1.2 lakh litres and one 17.8 lakhs litres of paint per annum. The company Y forecasted 12 lakhs and 8 lakhs litres of paint per annum. Both companies have 10 lakh litres per annum as the average demand. However, the company X faces more uncertainty for getting better forecasts.  This uncertainty is popularly known as a forecast error.

Second forecasting characteristics is

The accuracy of the forecast is better for shorter duration.

Let me illustrate this with an Indian airline company, Indigo Airlines. Indigo Airlines keep updating their travel plans by getting weather forecasting Currently, Indigo Airlines is tied up with Indian Meteorological department for supplying the weather data This will help the company in the capacity expansion on a quarterly basis. The Ajatus software (https://www.ajatus.in/) that Indigo uses brought fruitful results to the company. It improved Fleet assignment and customized pricing on ancillaries such as leg rooms and meals

The artificial intelligence Used by Indigo Airlines enhanced their revenue. Indigo's forecasting included increasing aircraft seat availability and route planning.

Third characteristics of the forecasting is

aggregate forecasts are easier than Disaggregate forecasts.

Though, many companies have their forecasting system in place, When they transform their data with others in the supply chain  find forecast errors due to non collaboration This has made many companies  formulate their  block chain with  supply chain members. In this Block Chain, the data is integrated across the supply chain. That improves the quality of the data. The Ledger sharing and data security also improve the forecast across the block chain Similarly, the forecasting of per capita income of India is much easier than forecasting a Market Basket value of a customer coming to a retail store.

 Fourth characteristics of forecasting in supply chain is

Distortion in customer information effects company forecasting in the supply chain.

Retailers who are very close to the customers forecasts better But as one moved up in a supply chain to the distributor level, C&F level, manufacturers level and a supplier  level, the forecast error also increases This is commonly known as the bullwhip effect. After the implementation of CPFR and block chain technology in the supply chain, companies have experienced reduction in the forecast errors

 

The role of forecasting in Indian supply chain.

The role of forecasting in a supply chain 

All push processes performed in anticipation of a customer demand whereas for pull process manager must plan for inventory and capacity. For example, Tata Motors, the automobile manufacturer from India, order auto components In anticipation of customer orders The company also uses its plant capacity to keep inventory at factory as well as at retailers’ location. The ordering a component is a push process whereas manufacturing and utilizing the capacity is a pull process.  Now, MRF, supplier to the Tata Motors, also needs to forecast for its orders and capacity utilization. Thus each player is the supply chain forecast separately and that leads to mismatch in the forecasting. Hence modern Supply Chain management software and organizations consistently forecasting on using CPFR and block chain model. CPFR is collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment. 

Let me explain with another example of Godrej a consumer goods company. The company has begun a project called ' Sampark' distribution management system used for stock management billing for customer and report generation. For this project implementation, Godrej has roped in carrying it Forward agents(C&F) agents, and distributors. This has eliminated Multi-point documentation done earlier. Further it also helped in regular replenishment, reducing the inventory and the better forecasting. 

After the initial success of sampark, Godrej has launched two new projects called. Sahayoga and the sampoorna either. Godrej has helped the intermediaries to reduce their lead time, tracker orders and quick settlement of outstanding wherein sampark has implemented for retailers to track final customer orders.

Module 5 Digital marketing

Module  5 : digital marketing. 

1. What is web analysis? 

2. How do you track specific goals with a web analysis 

3. Discuss tools to measure search engine marketing 

4. Define audience segmentation.

5.  How data will help us get insights. 

6. What do you mean by data lifecycle 

7. Explain PDCA model? 

8. Discuss e-commerce order and payment systems 

9. Explain retargeting in e-commerce 

10. How do you validate International Market? 

11. How do you advertise across borders?

12.  Create a plan for customer service globally.

Module 4 digital marketing questions

Module 4 digital marketing questions. 

1. Define email marketing, 

2. what are goals of email marketing explain do's and don'ts of email marketing 

3. discuss characteristics of great marketing emails. 

4. What do you mean by a/b testing? What is an open rate in email marketing

5.  how organizations measure the success of email marketing 

6. Define click to open rate? 

7. Define conversion rates in email marketing 

8. distinguish hard bounce and soft bounce in email marketing. 

9. What is display advertising? Distinguish  search advertising v/s display advertising 

10. discuss ins and outs of display advertising. 

11. What do you mean by placement in display advertisements? 

12. Write a note on ad Networks. 

13. What do you mean by retargeting? What do you mean by retargeting works? 

14. Explain how retargeting works. Discuss strategies for developing sharing and promoting a video How do you measure a video performance?

Module 3 Digital marketing questions

Module 3 Digital marketing

1. Explain the power of local directories. 

2.  Discuss strategies to reach locals in their mobiles 

3. Elaborate the use of SEO in the local business 

4. Define social media 

5. how to select the right social media for the organization 

6. Discuss goals for social media 

7. Explain advertising in social media. 

8. How do you measure the success on social media? 

9. How to avoid pitfalls of social media 

10. Explain advantages of mobile apps 

11. Define click-to-call. 

12. Explain display Campaign for mobile 

13. What is YouTube algorithm? 

14. Define content marketing. 

15. What do you mean by content calendar?

Transportation in a supply chain

The role of transportation in a supply chain

Transportation is the back bone of every supply chain network. It facilitates the movement of goods from one destination to other destination starting from suppliers till customers. Further, the transportation is crucial for manufacturers and intermediaries as manufacturing facilities and customer locations may not be same. For instance, Hero Motocorp manufactures their bikes in Kolar plant India and their majority customers account from Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru and Chennai. Thus, there's need for bikes transported from Kolar plant to metro cities. 

According to IBEF, today, companies spend 14.4℅ of the GDP on transportation that is much higher than developed countries 10%. However, Indian transportation industry contribute only 6.3% of the GDP with CAGR 15%.

5I's: Drivers of Indian transportation industry

• Interstate movement of goods and passengers. 
• Increase in disposable income. 
• Intensive growth of FMCG sector
• Incremental growth of export sector
• Investment by government and private enterprises

Modes of transportation

• Air
• Package carriers
• Truck
• Rail
• Water
• Pipeline
• Digital
• Intermodal. 

Performance characteristics:

Air

This is  a very expensive mode of transportation. However, it is a good mode of transportation for long distance shipment. This mode of transportation commonly used by goods those in small size yet expensive. Apart from this, air transportation used to meet quicker time scheduled shipments of the product. 

Package carriers

These are small transportation companies carrying couriers and packaging weighing up to 70 kgs. Maruti Parcel service, Safe Express, Gati etc are a few companies involved in package carrier business in India. 

Water

This is the ideal mode of transportation for bulk goods to be shipped to long distance. However, this mode suffers from customs and excise clearance, jettison, pirates, port clearance and container management. 

Rail

This mode is very popular in India for shipping oil and gas, cement, and bulk items. The railway network can carry goods for longer distance but it is time consuming. Till Indian Railways allowed private container and proper axle loading businesses were not using this mode regularly. Yet, this mode gave cost advantage to entrepreneurs due to the tarriff structure. 

Truck

This mode of transportation is good for door to door delivery. Added to this, it takes less time to reach destination. Apart from this, a customer can track their shipments. Contrary to above points, if transportation is having less than truck load ( LTL) it will take long time due to pick and drop of goods at multiple locations. To overcome from this business owners used cross docking, 3PL, 4Pl, and 5PL strategies. 

Intermodal

This type of transportation mode is used when one transportation mode is not possible or cost effective. For instance, A cement company in Gujarat wants to send their products to Ichalakaranji in Maharashtra. The company may use rail network till Kolhapur because of cost effectiveness but further it will use road network to drop products to a dealer in Ichalakaranji. Another example is Indian oil. This company procure crude oil from different countries through ship and use rail and road to reach the final consumer. The major hurdle this mode undergoes is information sharing at different points. This leads to delay in products distribution and ultimately a poor customer service. 

 

Transportation infrastructure and policies

Design options for a transportation network

Direct shipment network

Direct shipping with milk run

All shipments via central DC

Shipping via DC using milk run. 

Tailored network. 

Trade-offs in transportation design

Transportation and inventory cost trade-offs

1. Transportation mode selection. 

2. Aggregating inventory

Trade-offs between transportation costs and customer relationship. 

Tailored transportation

In this type of transportation, organizations use different networks and modes looking at customer and product characteristics.For Instance, Parry's that manufacture fertilizers and sugar have to desing their transportation network differently. Most fertilizer companies in India transport via Indian railway where as sugar 1 Kg pet bottles are transported using trucks. Parry's has to adjust transportation based on product characteristics.

Tailored transportation by customer density and distance

 

	Short distance	Medium distance	Long distance
High density	Private truck companies with milk run	Cross docking with milk runs	Cross docking with milk runs
Medium density	3PL carriers	Less than truckload carriers	Less than truckload carriers or package carriers.
Low density	Less than truckload carriers OR third party Milk runs.	Less than truckload carriers or package carriers.	Package carriers.

Tailored transportation by size of customers

Tailored transportation by product demand and value. 

 

	High Value	Low Value
High Demand	Safety inventory should be aggregated and cycle inventory has to be dis-aggregated. Cheaper mode of transportation should be used for cycle inventory whereas quick service transportation mode should be used for safety inventory.	All inventories must be dis-aggregated and companies must focus on cheaper mode of transportation for replenishment
Low Demand	Aggregate all inventories. On need basis an organization must adopt quick modes of transportation.	Aggregate only safety inventory and manufacture must use cheaper modes of transportation for cycle inventory replenishment.

The role of information technology in supply chain

Route planning

Route optimization had become an important tool to reduce the cost. To achieve this objective, transportation companies use information such as a customer location, shipment size, delivery time and the capacity of the transportation mode and optimize the ideal route.

Fleet utilization

Loading and unloading at multiple destinations is the major hurdle for transportation companies. Fleet utilization software will take into the consideration of size of container, size of delivery and sequence of delivery and synchronize all of them.

Global positioning system

GPS allows transportation companies to track and inform about products in real time to customers. This feature enhances customer satisfaction. Today, a customer gets notifications about shipment arrival and delivery information well in advance. These notifications also help transporters load and unload goods properly.

ERP: Enterprise resource Planning

RFID: Radio Frequency Identification Device.

Block chain

Risk management in transportation

Making transportation decisions in practice. 

1. Synergy of competition strategy and transportation strategy. 

2. Own transportation and outsourcing  transportation decision. 

3. Transportation technologies and productivity. 

4. Agile transportation network

The importance of supply chain decisions

1. The effective flow of goods and information

2. Replenishment of goods in a cost efficient manner. 

3. Sharing information with suppliers to reduce costs and increase the product availability. 

4. Close contact with customers to develop a better forecast. 

5. Real time customer service. 

6. Trade off between variety and inventory. 

7. Customized solutions to suppliers. 

The objective of a supply chain

• Creation of the value
• Every supply chain aspires to increase their value. This supply chain value is the difference between product worth and total supply chain cost. 
• Supply chain profitability or supply chain surplus. 

What is a supply chain?

A supply chain is a network of various stakeholders involved directly or indirectly in executing a customer order. 

The supply chain includes suppliers suppliers, suppliers, manufacturers, C&F agents, Wholesalers, stockists, distributors, agents, retailers, subretailers, brokers, peddlars and most Importantly customers. 

In a typical manufacturing organization, a supply chain functions include, new product development, operation, finance, distribution, and customer service. 

Audience segmentation

Introduction

Marketing is in a  transition stage. Today, marketers are mass customizing their products and also personalizing their communications. One of the characteristics of segmentation i.e. size has become less relevant in the modern day marketing. Hence, marketers are now looking for micro-segmentation and hyper targeting. Thus, it has become imperative for marketers to know the process of audience segmentation and later offering their solutions to meet the customer needs.

What do you mean by audience segmentation?

Audience segmentation is the process of divining customer groups into subgroups based on homogeneous characteristics such as

• Demographics
• Psycho-graphics
• Media usage
• communication behaviors

Homogeneity

Let me take an example and illustrate the homogeneity. Assume a bike dealer gets 1000 footfalls in a month. The  sample details of customers are as follows:

Name of the customer	Age	Income of the family per month	occupation	city
A	24	Rs 60000	Call center executive	Bengaluru
B	26	Rs 40000	Marketing executive	Bengaluru
C	29	Rs 60000	Govt salaried	Bengaluru
D	35	Rs 65000	IT executive	Mysore
E	26	Rs 15000	Security	Bengaluru
F	28	Rs 55000	Production Manager	Bengaluru.

Now obvious question is how do we find the homogeneity if a bike dealer wants to sell his Rs 2,80,000 bike. First, we will filter the data from the thumb rule of 50% of the salary assuming that other part will go to house hold expenses. The person E  earning Rs 15000 per month may not be a right suit for high end bike The Person D might have come to Bengaluru and might have done window shopping at the bike dealer retail outlet.Hence his name may be omitted. Most of the finance company gives the car /bike loan for threee years. Hence EMI for three years will be around Rs 10,000. Thus , B may not be the right person to buy the product at this stage of his life. Hence only A, C, and F are having the potential to buy the product. However, The person F is having only two years of service. Looking at all this the dealer will target only A and C.

 If we go back and analyze the data now both A and C are in the age bracket of 23-30 years. That's the homogeneity.

Looks tedious! thus, data science come into the picture to find the homogeneity of crores of customers profiles through cluster analysis.

Modes of customer data collections

A customer group's  data may be collected from

a. Qualitative approach

In this method, a customer data collected via secondary data, qualitative data analysis techniques such as focus groups, Delphi techniques, projective techniques and depth interviews. However, a customer data have serious issues as relevance, currency, representatives of the data, suitability of qualitative interview panel members

b. Quantitative approach

Quantitative data collected from survey and observation for the first time by the researcher using either personal interview, mail interview, telephonic interview, or online interview.

Segmentation decisions:

Strategy 1: Allocating resources equal to all segments.

Strategy 2: Differentiating the amount to each segment.

Strategy 3: Identify one or a few segments and allocate the resources.

References

         

1. Audience segmentation. (2010). Retrieved 15 June 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audience_segmentation#:~:text=Audience%20segmentation%20is%20a%20process, communication%20behaviors%20and%20media%20use.
2. Maibach, E. W., & Parrott, R. (1995). Designing health messages: Approaches from communication theory and public health practice. Sage.
3. Weinreich, N. K. (2010). Hands-on social marketing: a step-by-step guide to designing change for good. Sage Publications.
   

 

MDH masala - A business case study

Demand for Hyper local

Why the demand for hyperlocal delivery will continue post-Covid 

 Covid-19 has drastically changed consumer behaviour. With physical retail coming almost to a standstill over the past couple of months, there has been a surge in demand for hyperlocal delivery, specifically for essential goods, thanks to local businesses trying to serve customers in their areas. Praharsh Chandra, co-Founder and COO, Shadowfax, said that during the initial phase of the lockdown, the company saw the demand for hyperlocal delivery of essential category goods peak to almost 3-5 times of what they recorded pre-Covid. He added that they now see the demand coming from other categories too, including food deliveries. In many ways, the lockdown has brought a permanent shift in seller and buyer behaviour, that will continue post the lockdown as well, said Saahil Goel, co-founder of Shiprocket. Shiprocket launched the hyperlocal delivery pilot on its platform in early May and is planning to open it up for all its merchants over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. 

Increasing dependence 

“Covid-19 might well be the epochal moment, with consumers now starting to use it for literally every daily requirement,” said Krishna Khandelwal, Chief Business Officer, Locus, a business to business (B2B), software as a service (SaaS) platform that automates human decisions in the supply chain. “With the expected surge in volumes for e-commerce, the “Pick-Up” and “Drop Off” model will gain prominence. The local kirana stores will act as the new ‘warehouses/hubs’ for deliveries. E-commerce firms will deliver products to the kirana store, which will further do door-to-door delivery,” he added. From food to grocery, consumers are slowing growing to be dependent on hyperlocal deliveries. While on one hand, it has helped do away with long queues, on the other , it has also pushed the previously offline consumers to take to online shopping from the convenience of their homes. The fact that so many retail brands are launching their own hyperlocal delivery services speaks of the potential of this space to grow and become mainstream, said a spokesperson from Dunzo, which has also been seeing its average order value increase 4x times since April 2020. “Hyperlocal delivery will become a routine way of life, with more users adopting delivery platforms to transact. Depending on regulations and health and safety, people will be less likely to interact with the physical world, beyond their homes. With work from home also becoming a part of life, more users will leverage the convenience of home delivery,” the spokesperson added. The supply-side constraints have considerably eased over a period of time, and companies have now adjusted to the new normal, ensuring a better delivery experience, noted Locus’s Khandelwal. 

Convenience over cost 

While post-lockdown, hyperlocal delivery might expand beyond groceries and essentials, there are a few hiccups involved, such as predicting demand, availability of enough riders to meet it and the higher cost for doorstep delivery. But, with safety becoming a priority and people wanting to stay indoors for fear of contracting the virus, consumers might want to put convenience and safety over cost, said heads of these firms. “Historically, the cost factor and the availability of the right technology for efficient decision making have been the roadblocks for hyperlocal deliveries. But, the Covid-19 pandemic has made hyperlocal deliveries a necessity. Consumers might now be willing to pay for convenience,” said Locus’s Khandelwal. He added that the rapidly increasing hyperlocal delivery volumes might finally be able to justify the costs by using the right technology to bring in the necessary efficiency in the process. Fast adoption of technology by both customers and neighbourhood shops, the comfort of buying and selling at the click of the button, deep penetration of warehouses in most localities, quick transportation, easy availability of highly mobile delivery partners etc. are a few critical factors that will further drive the surge of hyperlocal delivery post-Covid in India, said Shadowfax’s Chandra. 

( Source: National, Science, Sports, World, Variety, & Education et al. (2020). Why the demand for hyperlocal delivery will continue post-Covid. @businessline. Retrieved 4 June 2020, from https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/why-the-demand-for-hyperlocal-delivery-will-continue-post-covid/article31694345.ece)